% day surfer forecast

SHORT-TERM (second half of work week)

The moderate trade wind fetch extending well out into the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas will continue to generate a weak/marginally rideable ESE/SE wind swell which should bottom out around 0.5-occ 1′ Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Weather will be hot and dry, though the beaches will be cooled each afternoon by fresh sea breezes.

LONG TERM (post holiday weekend)

The prolonged period of onshore flow will continue and strengthen each afternoon through the end of the work week. Models tout a notable increase in longer period E/ESE swell over the Memorial Day Weekend, and then again next week, produced by the fetch associated several slow moving open ocean lows (extra-tropical in nature) well out in the Atlantic, combined with the lengthy stretch of moderate trade winds north of the low (along the belly of the Bermuda High). The swell should be a multiple-day event starting late Friday and stretching through the holiday weekend. The swell will have ups and downs, and should have a first peak in size Saturday afternoon/Sunday morning, then linger well into the following work week with another peak likely mid-week. Latest guidance suggests scattered thunderstorms will be possible forming inland along the sea breeze (then drifting SW) early in the holiday weekend, though the start of the summer rainy season will be spotty at best. I will expand on the wind/waves weather and spit out some #’s with a day to day break it down when I see reason to do so. Stay tuned…

5-DAY SURF FORECAST (0900May 26)

THURSDAY: Wind light SSW/S early, then S/SE 5-15 mph in the afternoon with waves up a smidgen to 0.5-1′ (+/-0.5′) in 8 second period SE/ESE wind swell.

FRIDAY: The E/SE fetch extending out into the Atlantic is forecast to expand, allowing the small/weak Bermuda high ”trade wind” swell to spread out in period and acquire a bit more “punch” by the end of the work week, building in the afternoon to 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in 8-9 second SE/ESE swell. Wind will be light SSW/S in the morning, followed by a fresh beach-cooling SE sea breeze in the afternoon.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: The ESE swell will bounce up into the 1-2′ (occ + set waves possible south areas late Saturday and on Sunday) in ESE/ENE mix swell, spreading out in period to 9-10 seconds. Wind will be lightest in the morning, with a sea breeze expected each afternoon (stronger and  earlier  on Sunday).

MEMORIAL DAY INTO JUNE: Looks like an extended run of 1-2′  (up/down) easterly swell at a minimum through midweek. The onshore flow is forecast to freshen from the east through the first half of the work week as the western extension of the strengthening Bermuda High extends across the Florida peninsula. This typical summer weather pattern will keep us in rideable (though choppy) surf through most of the first week in June, keeping the dog day duldroms at bay to start the summer surf season.

 

Here is the current 10 meter wind/pressure map for Florida:

To monitor local winds at specific locations up and down Florida’s east coast to find the best surface conditions when meaningful waves dictate, the Florida hourly weather page (updated hourly) covers the entire state:  http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly

 

Current WW3 model of the Atlantic illustrates that there isn’t a major swell source ATM:

 

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE ON THE UPCOMING HURRICANE SEASON

Following the progressive weather pattern in place through the first half of April with cold fronts periodically clearing Florida every 4-5 days, a seasonal shift in the storm track well to the north will be the rule through the month of May. With this transition, meaningfull swells will become fewer and farther between as we near the start of summer.  The extrememly early debut of the sub-tropical low in over the SW Atlantic in mid-April, in combination with a persistently strong Bermuda High (which is a major steering component for tropical systems) has me-gut a grumblin’ about the upcoming ‘cane season in Florida.   NOAA just released their 2011 call and they said their is a 70% probability of the following:

The conditions expected this hurricane season have historically produced some active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Therefore, the 2011 season could see activity comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate the following ranges of activity during 2011: