5 day surf forcast

SHORT-TERM (Days 1-2)

The noteable increase in ground swell that we enjoyed late last week and early in the weekend, associated with the fetch produced by a slow moving vertically stacked open ocean low moving slowly through our ENE swell widow for several days, is now a tit-scab mamory. The persistent offshore wind flow through mid-week will produce dreaded “Lake Atlantic” conditions along Florida’s east coast and an extended period of very small to flat surf.

LONG TERM (Days 3-5)

Following several days of moderate to offshore wind and no swell source in our Atlantic swell window, we should see some improvement late in the work week extending over the weekend as the wind comes on around onshore again from the E/SE, generating a moderate ESE fetch extending out over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas, allowing a small trade wind swell starting late Thursday/Friday, peaking in the 1-1.5′ range (occ 2′ at times) over the weekend. Looking out beyond the 5-day, latest model runs suggest a moderate-size ENE ground swell will arrive around the middle of next week from an intense but distant north Atlantic storm system. If additional runs backup the suggestion, I will incorporate into the forecast. Stay tuned…

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5-DAY SURF FORECAST (0800 May 18)

WEDNESDAY: After an unseasonably cool/crisp late spring morning, wind easing to W/WSW 5-15 mph with waves bottoming out at 0-1/2′ in nearly non-existant dribble.

THURSDAY: Waves starting out near flat with wind west 5-11 mph in the morning. A fresh afternoon sea breeze will increase to 6-15 mph from the SE, producing a junky 1/2-occ 1′ wind-chop swell late in the day.

FRIDAY: Wind SE/ESE 5-15 mph with waves up a bit to 1-occ 1.5′ in SE/ESE wind swell.

THE WEEKEND: The onshore flow should continue, and with a decent ESE fetch extending well out into the Atlantic we should see a small but highly rideable Bermuda high ”trade wind” swell hold over the weekend in the 1-1.5′ (occ 2′) range. Look for updates and tweaks to this call as the work week progresses.

NEXT WEEK: A moderate ground swell from a distant storm system may be in the works. Check the Long Term discussion above and watch for incorporation into the forecast if future data supports the model’s suggestion.